Publisher estimates the 2016 sales for the Ulcerative Colitis (UC) market at approximately $5.4 billion across the 7MM, encompassing the US, the 5EU, and Japan. Over the course of the 10-year forecast period, the UC market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% across the 7MM. Each of the 7MM are anticipated to grow, recording CAGRs of 2.7%, 1.2%, and 4.3% across the US, 5EU, and Japan, respectively. At the end of 2026, the US will account for 80.4% of sales across the 7MM, while the 5EU and Japan, will account for around 16.1% and 3.4% of sales, respectively.

The higher sales numbers for the US can be attributed to the higher prices of pharmaceuticals and the greater diagnosed prevalence of UC in the region, as well as the high annual cost of therapy (ACOT) of J&J’s Stelara and the anticipated ACOT of AbbVie’s risankizumab and Eli Lilly’s mirikizumab in the US market.

Alexandra Annis, Senior Pharma Analyst at Publisher, comments:

"The major barriers of growth in the UC market during the forecast period include the high prices of biologic agents, which will prevent physicians from prescribing them to all patients, and the crowded market dynamics, which will make the uptake of pipeline drugs more difficult."